Buying-Power Trends

The long view on affordability. Each chart says which direction is good for you as a buyer.

Monthly payment to buy the typical home

median price × rate

For buyers: Lower is better for buyers

The real monthly cost of the median home over time (full PITI, 15% down). The 2021→2023 spike is the rate shock — the same house, a far bigger payment.

What the median income can buy (buying power)

max qualifying price

For buyers: Higher is better for buyers

How much house a typical household qualifies for at each period's rate. When this falls, your income buys less home even if your salary didn't change.

Housing-cost burden

payment ÷ income

For buyers: Lower is better for buyers

Payment on the median home as a share of median income. Above ~30% is considered cost-burdened — lenders and budgets both strain.

Home price-to-income ratio

price ÷ income

For buyers: Lower is better for buyers

The classic valuation gauge. ~3–4× is historically normal; 5×+ means homes are expensive relative to what people earn.

Real (inflation-adjusted) home prices

Case-Shiller ÷ CPI, rebased to 100

For buyers: Lower is better for buyers

Appreciation above inflation. Flat means homes just kept pace with the cost of living; a steep rise means prices outran everything else — a stretched market.

New-home supply

FRED MSACSR

For buyers: Higher is better for buyers

Months it would take to sell current for-sale inventory. More supply means more choice and more negotiating leverage for buyers (≈6 months is balanced).

Mortgage rate vs. 10-year Treasury (spread)

30-yr − 10-yr

A wide spread hints rates could ease even without Fed cuts

Mortgage rates track the 10-yr Treasury plus a spread. The spread is normally ~1.7pts; when it's unusually wide, mortgage rates have room to fall as markets calm — worth watching if you're timing a purchase.